Coffee in 2025: Chains Thrive on Growing Demand, Specialty Coffee Faces Unique Challenges

January 9, 2025

As we step into 2025, rising coffee prices are making headlines worldwide. Reports suggest that in some markets, like Australia, a single cup of coffee could cost as much as AU $12 by the end of the year. While this raises concerns among consumers, global coffee consumption is projected to grow, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the coffee industry.

Global Coffee Consumption Continues to Rise Despite Higher Prices

The coffee industry faced a tough year in 2024, with weather-related supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam pushing arabica and robusta prices to record highs. Export uncertainties, driven by new regulations like the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), added to the volatility, tightening margins across the supply chain.

Looking ahead, market analysts expect global coffee consumption to increase by 3 percent in 2025, reaching over 168 million 60kg bags. Even with the threat of higher prices, coffee remains a daily ritual for many, especially younger generations who view it as a lifestyle essential rather than just a caffeine fix.

Gen Z and Millennials are driving this growth, explains Darleen Scherer, founder of Black Sheep coffee consultancy. They’re starting to drink coffee at younger ages, prioritizing authenticity and personal connections with the brands they support. This demographic is willing to pay more for experiences and customized beverages that align with their values.

Big Chains Bank on Growing Demand

Major coffee chains are leveraging their established market presence to navigate rising costs. Strong brand loyalty ensures their customer base will likely remain intact, even as prices rise. Companies are doubling down on marketing campaigns and collaborations to attract younger consumers, who are driving much of the demand.

For example, Dunkin recently partnered with singer-songwriter Sabrina Carpenter to promote its Brown Sugar Shakin’ Espresso. Carpenter’s strong Gen Z fan base aligns with Dunkin’s strategy to target younger coffee drinkers who value little treat indulgences.

Chains are emphasizing customization and unique offerings to justify premium prices, Scherer says. They’re also using social media and celebrity partnerships to create viral moments that resonate with their audiences.

Starbucks has similarly benefited from the growing popularity of brown sugar beverages, capitalizing on flavor trends inspired by the Asian bubble tea market. These experiential offerings appeal to younger consumers looking for more than just a standard coffee experience.

Specialty Coffee Shops Face New Hurdles

While large chains may weather rising costs with ease, specialty coffee shops and roasters face a different reality. These businesses rely on smaller volumes of high-quality coffee, making them more vulnerable to market volatility. Increasing retail prices without alienating customers will be a delicate balancing act.

A recent report from the UK described running an independent coffee shop as near impossible due to high coffee prices, wage increases, and rising taxes. Many specialty brands may find it challenging to compete with the perceived value and convenience offered by larger chains.

However, Scherer believes independent coffee shops and roasters can differentiate themselves by leaning into their authenticity. Consumers are looking for more than just a great cup of coffee—they want to connect with the story behind it, she explains.

How Specialty Coffee Can Stand Out

To thrive in 2025, specialty coffee shops need to focus on building strong, personal connections with their customers. Scherer suggests sharing the story of the brand’s founder, showcasing direct relationships with coffee farmers, and highlighting the unique qualities of their offerings.

Social media is a powerful tool for smaller coffee businesses, she says. Share behind-the-scenes moments, community events, and stories that reflect your values. Authenticity resonates deeply with today’s consumers—up to 91 percent of them are more likely to support brands they perceive as genuine.

Additionally, smaller roasters should prioritize quality over price. Offering signature drinks and creating community-focused experiences can help build loyalty and set them apart from larger competitors.

Looking Ahead

Despite rising prices, the global appetite for coffee is expected to grow in 2025. Big chains are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend with large-scale marketing efforts and strong brand loyalty. Meanwhile, specialty coffee businesses must focus on authenticity and innovation to compete in a rapidly evolving market.

By emphasizing their unique stories and commitment to quality, independent coffee shops and roasters can build lasting connections with their customers, ensuring they remain relevant in a competitive industry.

January 27, 2025

What makes coffee so special?

With each sip, coffee takes you on a journey through time and space, awakening your senses and invigorating your spirit. It's not just a beverage; it's a passport to different lands and traditions, a key to unlocking new perspectives and connections.

How can you embrace the coffee adventure?

Step out of your comfort zone and explore the diverse world of coffee. Try different brewing methods, sample beans from various regions, and immerse yourself in the rituals and stories that accompany each cup. Challenge your taste buds and expand your horizons with each new blend.

Why should you join the coffee revolution?

Coffee is more than just a drink; it's a lifestyle, a culture, a way of life. By embracing the coffee adventure, you open yourself up to a world of possibilities and experiences. You become part of a global community united by a love for the bold and the flavorful, the adventurous and the inspiring.

So, are you ready to embark on this coffee journey? Grab your mug, take a sip, and let the rich aroma of coffee transport you to new heights of taste and discovery. The world of coffee awaits, full of bold flavors and exciting experiences. Cheers to the coffee adventure!

The Aromatic Journey of Coffee: From Bean to Brew

The Brew Theory of Pour Over Coffee

Why is it so tricky to brew a great pour over coffee? After all, at its heart, making a pour over is a simple process—pouring hot water over ground coffee dissolves flavor and aromatic compounds in the beans. The challenge lies in dissolving only the right kinds of compounds in coffee—and in the right proportion. To make a perfect pour over coffee is to find a coffee’s “sweet spot,” a balance of the extraction percentage and strength level we consider most delicious.

Coffee Strength and Extraction

When it comes to understanding strength and extraction, we find it helpful to compare coffee to a spice cupboard. Much in the same way spices are stowed away in a cupboard, an array of delicious flavors—aka volatile and soluble compounds—are locked inside roasted coffee beans. To be exact, coffee contains on average 30 percent soluble compounds and 70 percent insoluble compounds. But like any cook’s cupboard, it also contains a handful of flavors we don’t want—or want only in limited quantities—particularly bitter compounds that impart flavors of ash, tobacco, or carbon. What’s so fun about making a pour over coffee is how much control it gives you in pulling out exactly the right flavors at exactly the right ratio. It’s the Michelin-starred chef of coffee brew methods.

Coffee Strength

The concentration or intensity of flavor in a cup is what we refer to as coffee strength. On the palate, a coffee’s strength registers on a spectrum between watery and dense. In scientific terms, it can be measured by the percentage of dissolved coffee to water, a measurement we call the total dissolved solubles, or TDS.

For example, a well-made espresso has a TDS of between 9 and 20 percent coffee to water. By comparison, the more mellow pour over coffee has a much lower TDS of between 1 and 2 percent coffee to 98 to 99 percent water.

Strength is largely influenced by the amount of coffee you brew. In barista terms, this is referred to as the brew ratio or coffee dose. In lay terms, the more coffee you brew, the stronger the cup. At Blue Bottle, to set accurate brew ratios, we use gram scales to measure both our coffee and our water.

And we set individual brew ratios for all our coffees: We prefer our blends slightly stronger, to stand up to milk, so we generally brew them at 30 grams coffee per 350 grams water. We prefer our single origins more nuanced and expressive, so we “turn down the volume” a bit and keep their brew ratio slightly lower, at 22 to 24 grams coffee per 350 grams water.

If this seems like a lot to remember, a good way to assess a coffee’s strength is to judge its body. That is, the weight and feel of the coffee on your tongue. Does the coffee feel light like skim milk or heavy like whipping cream?

Coffee Extraction

Picture a cup of tea: Steep it too little and it will taste like water. Steep it too much and you have tar. Coffee behaves much the same way. Extraction is a measure of the quality of the solubles in coffee, which emerge at different rates the longer you brew. Those rates are influenced by time, temperature, and ratio of ground coffee to water. An underextracted coffee tastes sour. An overextracted cup is overwhelmed with bitter, even burnt flavors.

Ground coffee contains at most about 30 percent soluble compounds; the remaining 70 percent are fiber and other compounds that water cannot penetrate. But if you dissolve all 30 percent, your cup will not taste good. In a properly extracted cup of coffee, only between 18 and 22 percent of the coffee’s solubles have dissolved.

In pour over coffee, extraction is shaped by pour rate and pour patterns. It’s also impacted by grind size. Grind your beans too fine and the water will pass too slowly through the coffee, extracting too many bitter compounds. Grind them too coarse and the water will rush past the best flavor compounds, leaving you with a coffee that tastes only sour, not sweet or radiant. Grind your beans just right, and the optimal flavor compounds will dissolve in the water, leaving the undesirable flavors behind.

If this all seems like a lot to remember, a good way to assess extraction is by the coffee’s finish. Once you’ve finished a cup of coffee, pay attention to whether or not you can still experience its flavors. We often describe finish in terms of duration, how long the taste lingers, and texture, the feel of it in your mouth. Is the finish fleeting or does it linger? Does it feel smooth or rough?

Finding a Pour Over Coffee’s Sweet Spot

The trick to any method of coffee brewing is to hit the sweet spot—to balance a coffee’s strength and extraction percentage to achieve one delicious cup.

Now that you have an understanding of brew theory and the concepts of strength and extraction, we recommend you practice making a pour over coffee, perhaps altering the coffee-to-water ratio to see how flavors can either become more distinct (with more more water) or more opaque and textured, as happens with the addition of more coffee grounds. Notice if you have a preferred strength. Do your preferences depend on the kind of coffee you’re making, whether a lighthearted single origin or a hefty blend?

Play with the extraction quality, too, by honing your pour over coffee skills, from dialing in the grind to pour technique. Somewhere in this quest you’ll start to notice that your coffee becomes more resonant, with every aspect of it coming into clearer focus. Like notes played on a tuned-up piano, individual flavors start to ring, until the entire coffee, from its mouthfeel to its finish, hums like a chord progression.